“I find it frustrating and worrying that people are so wrong about the world. How could policymakers and politicians solve global problems if they were operating on the wrong facts?”
- Factfulness
Most people erroneously believe that poverty is getting worse, even though it has decreased by fifty percent over the past two decades. In 2018, ourworldindata.org surveyed individuals in 28 countries regarding their views on poverty. Fifty-two percent believed that poverty was on the rise. Those answering from the wealthiest countries were the most incorrect, while those from lower-income countries, having seen the improvements firsthand, scored higher. Inaccurate perceptions limit our ability to see clearly. When we mistakenly imagine the world is one way, we fail to acknowledge the gains that have been made. The truth is the world is much, much better than we’ve been led to believe.
In Hans Rosling’s 2018 book, “Factfulness”, Rosling attempts to counter the ignorance by first providing a series of 13 questions, testing the readers' understanding of specific social conditions around the globe. Once the reader has failed the exam, Rosling lists a series of distortions, that he calls instincts, that prevent us from seeing the truth. Using World Bank and United Nations statistics, Rosling addresses some of the world’s most mistaken beliefs: that poverty is skyrocketing, deaths from natural disasters are getting worse, the endangered species list is increasing, and the world population is out of control.
When it comes to poverty, people incorrectly confuse inequality and poverty. While extreme poverty has been halved over the past twenty years, three-quarters of the world’s population is now considered middle-income nations. In fact, out of the 195 countries worldwide, only 13 are now deemed developing countries, meaning there are no longer sizable divisions among nations (the West and the Rest), leaving only a few straggler countries still struggling at the bottom. Poverty, on the other hand, is the difference between income and wealth within nations, and other countries. The poorest in wealthy countries are often equal or better off than the middle class in others, while relative wealth is not necessarily a problem when inequality is a result of different skill sets among people.
Despite the constant handwringing over global warming, the annual rate of climate deaths worldwide has fallen by 99 percent over the past century. Extreme weather has always been the default, regardless of the degree of warming in the air. The difference, now, is that when natural disasters strike a first-world country, they experience far fewer deaths than the same disaster hitting a third-world country. This is largely due to the greater wealth and technological advancements in richer nations that allow for stronger and more secure buildings. Another reason for the reduction is the significant number of people who now live in advanced and developed countries.
The belief that population growth is on an upward never-ending trajectory is another reoccurring fallacy. This persistent misconception, which started with Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century, continues to be advanced by environmental activists. Yet, birth rates are on the decline in every country, commensurate with their economic improvement. Over six billion people are already limiting their families to two children. Record peace, disease management, and wealth creation have led the way. The continuing fears that overpopulation evokes are also inaccurate. Most children, boys and girls, live in middle-income countries, receive vaccinations, are in school, have safe water, and more than enough to eat every day. As nations become wealthier and adopt capitalist economies, they also become safer.
A significant source of our ignorance about the world is how we receive information. Journalists knowingly and unknowingly mislead, as their focus is largely on expanding their audiences and making profits. A shift from neutral news reporting to propaganda designed to advance a particular political narrative has left us even more devoid of facts. Consuming a steady diet of negative stories can also significantly skew our views. News, having become increasingly sensational, creates irrational fears that frighten us into change, allowing rash policies and laws to be more readily accepted. We can no longer assume that we are receiving accurate information from corporate media, or any other individual authority.
Viewing the glass as half full, or half empty, reveals whether our worldview is one of optimism or pessimism. Just as a baker needs accurate measurements to achieve his perfect creation, we need accurate data to assess our ongoing state of affairs. Finding reliable sources where we can be confident in the information we receive, and having enough curiosity to fact-check stories, especially with dueling facts, is increasingly necessary. And finally, we have to remember that change is occurring incrementally, and things are not the same as they were when Michael Jackson penned, “Heal the World”.
The Coronavirus certainly has had an extremely negative effect on the world economy, now and in the future. Returning to a fact-based reality will help prevent wrong-headed policies from undermining the progress already made and the progress that will be needed in the years to come.
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