War and Peace

“Intentions aside, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.” – Destined for War

Many disruptive technologies in the 21^st century have upstarts breaking into traditional markets, replacing established businesses, and radically changing industries.   From iPhone smartphones, Airbnb, Uber, Amazon, Netflix, and Bitcoin, corporations have been put on notice to either adapt or perish.  Mere competition can now lead to warfare, with aggressive and unethical practices used to beat back inevitable change. 

In Graham Allison’s 2017 book, “Destined for War”, Allison ponders the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States that could result in war, as the two superpowers compete on the world stage.  By comparing how emerging powers have challenged a reigning power in the past, Allison suggests how the US might best manage China’s growing stature in the world.  A theory called the Thucydides Trap defines the risks that naturally emerge when a rising power threatens a controlling power, with the fear that they may eventually be replaced. 

Thucydides was a fifth-century Athenian who provided the most comprehensive account of the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens in his book, “History of the Peloponnesian War”.  Hoping to alert future officials to some of the problems that initiated the conflict, Thucydides wrote mainly about Sparta’s hegemony, which Athens challenged. 

In modern times, England held the title of Global Empire through colonization and conquest, beginning in the sixteenth century until the early twentieth century.  Following the end of World War II, economic and political disruptions in Europe led to a shift in global power to the United States.  Now China is rising.  The question is, when or if they will ever overtake the US?

A dual power “tale of the tape” shows how the two countries line up.  Based on the measurement of Gross Domestic Product, the US still leads with 31 trillion in 2025, while China lags at 20.  When it comes to average growth rates, however, over the past decades, China has seen rates of 5.6 percent a year, compared to the US at just 3.9 percent.  While the US participates in the G7, a collection of the seven most advanced democracies in the world, China created its own competing collaboration of nations called BRICS.  And while the G7 meets to monitor international security and global governance, BRICS seeks to grow its own influence through greater economic integration. 

Since the start of the Communist Party in 1949, China has grown by leaps and bounds with its vast labor force and low production costs.  Along with its status as the world’s largest trading partner, China is also the central hub in global supply chains and leads in manufacturing, making China the world’s factory.   As a result, China is the second-largest destination for foreign investment, after the United States.  Vulnerabilities, however, include a slowing of growth due to population declines from aging and low fertility rates, leading to a labor force contraction.  Overcapacity in manufacturing and diminishing returns on investments have also affected its low cost of living.  Most notably, China is still a one-party communist state.

The United States, on the other hand, has problems of its own, with China currently holding 683.5 billion of US debt as a foreign creditor, while US debts and deficits continue to climb.  It, too, suffers from slow growth, increased inflation, and shaky consumer confidence.  On the plus side, the US still has immense appeal, with its soft power, younger population, and as a popular immigration destination.  As of now, the US is still the world’s reserve currency.  Most of all, it is the origin of the Constitution that advanced individualism and the rule of law as its defining philosophy. 

The US and China, however, are not the only rivals competing for power.  Another smaller Thucydides Trap is vying for hegemony in the Middle East, where numerous countries hold power in various disciplines.  Iran is the dominant power in the Middle East by population, energy resources, and military size, and holds the largest missile arsenal.  Israel has technologically advanced air defense, while Turkey has the largest NATO-aligned army, and Saudi Arabia has the largest defense budget. 

Currently, nine countries have nuclear weapons, including China and the United States.  A doctrine called Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), however, tempers the possibility of nuclear war, when both nations can be annihilated by the other, as well as mutually assured economic destruction (MAED), which acts as a deterrent to the possibility of nuclear war, when interdependence between nations serves to the benefit of both. 

The past seven decades since WWII without a war between superpowers is known as the long peace.  During remarks given by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in a May 2026 meeting with US President Donald Trump, the first mention of the Thucydides Trap was made.  With over 400 billion in annual trade on the line, China and the United States are keen to look at ways to coexist and collaborate to avoid any future conflict.