“The great defining event of the twenty-first century – one of the great defining events in human history – will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end.” – Empty Planet
At the turn of the twenty-first century, men in China who began reaching the age of marriage found themselves with an absence of options. The cause of their deficiency can be traced back to 1979 when the Communist government imposed their ready solution to the perceived problem of an exploding population, a savage one-child policy. This draconian law led agrarian families, in particular, to highly favor boys over girls, and therefore, to take every opportunity to make sure their one shot at procreation ended with a boy. This, in turn, resulted, decades later, in a society of tens of millions of men who can’t find a wife, let alone a date. While the disastrous directive was finally ended in 2015, the consequences have been enormous.
An earlier top-down order by the Chinese regime, in the late 50s and early 60s, had even worse effects. A central planning scheme meant to usher in the age of communism, instead, resulted in the deadliest famine in world history, where an estimated 45 million people died of starvation. These, and other, government pseudo-experimentations to control the population, have had an abysmal effect around the globe with increasingly devastating results.
Nature’s own hand kept the population in check by delivering tough times, sickness, and famine, for the better part of history leading up to the early nineteenth century. Many children died young and adult life spans were shortened. Tribal wars and other skirmishes provided further means of thinning the herd. Most of mankind lived under difficult rural circumstances before the Industrial Revolution lured greater populations into the cities, granting, finally, a better way of life.
Increased industrialization and growing urbanization produced conditions that resulted in longer life, and greater self-sufficiency. Vaccines and medication helped cure and enhance life. Advancements in public health systems improved urban life while healthier diets kept diseases at bay. Peace opened up markets to expanded trade among people and nations. As the population exploded, wealth grew.
As economic circumstances improve, couples naturally have less need for large families and soon opt for fewer children. Following the two disastrous world wars, the world became significantly more peaceful as political and economic systems shifted from communism and socialism, toward capitalism. As nations developed, child replacement rates leveled while life spans significantly increased.
Fears of an ongoing population boom have long passed. The world hit a record population high of 7 billion a decade ago, with totals expected to peak in the mid-21st century. The switch in mindset from population growth to population decline will be the focus of nations in the coming decades. In fact, countries with depleting birth rates and aging populations may already be running out of time.
Low fertility rates reemerging in the 1960s, created alarm in many European countries. Replacement rates plunged as an increasing number of couples had fewer children or no children at all, leaving their big welfare nations fearful of their ability to accommodate promised benefits to their citizens. Japan’s population is the oldest on earth, with 25 percent over the age of 65. They, along with other Asian countries are also seeing their birth rates dwindle. Adding to the Asian problem is their historic disdain for immigrants and refugees for reasons of racial homogeneity. Without a plan for the future, these aging populations will be left without a necessary workforce to support their commitments.
In the United States, petty concerns over the potential changes in the makeup of its citizenry appear unfounded. While blacks and Hispanics have slightly higher fertility rates than whites, that number is subsiding and evening out. Even immigrant birth rates drop as they quickly assimilate into American culture. Hispanics, blacks, whites, and Asians, all have fertility rates under the CDC recommendation of 2.1, which is an average of approximately 2 children per childbearing woman needed to maintain the current population. Apprehension over immigration, along with a growing nationalist mentality, must be addressed as the population ages, and fewer workers will be available to keep up with the economic demands.
A graph of nations, cited in Hans Rosling’s book, “Factfulness”, shows how the babies-per-mother curve drops to an average of two per family, as nations move from the category of developing country to first-world status. The trend moves the same regardless of ethnicity, region, and religion. Only the poorest ten percent of the world population continues to have larger families, with an average of five babies per mother.
In Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson’s 2019 book, “Empty Planet”, Bricker and Ibbitson examine the condition of six continents as increases in urbanization decrease birth rates, and the growth of elderly populations begin to change the future of individual countries. Using Canada as a preferred model, Bricker and Ibbitson reveal the steps that will be necessary to create enough immigration to meet their ongoing needs. While 15 percent of the US population is made up of immigrants, Canada has reached a rate of 20 percent by recruiting some of the youngest and best educated. As nations face shortages of workers, Bricker and Ibbitson see countries becoming browner and grayer. As native citizens age, immigrants will be needed to pick up the slack and provide the means to fulfill fiscal commitments.
More than half of all world citizens now live in urban areas, and those numbers are expected to rise. In the United States, that number is over 83 percent. As we transition from overpopulation to the potential of underpopulation, nations will need to determine what this decline will have on their economic futures.
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